Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 31.175443 34.794558 38.957052 44.171282 50.636743 58.545755 69.214155
2025-07-06 27.258345 32.163137 38.385545 47.159541 59.780841 78.373496 110.532488
2025-07-13 23.550978 28.794364 35.892455 46.782670 64.379742 94.940448 163.779886
2025-07-20 21.179690 26.629278 34.403373 47.222279 70.282342 117.776401 267.652792
2025-07-27 19.425970 24.975396 33.237565 47.727821 76.493807 147.159908 499.918903
2025-08-03 17.936327 23.458550 31.959358 47.634472 81.523402 180.380363 1132.299947
2025-08-10 16.614009 22.010511 30.531769 46.876125 84.801646 214.568885 4027.561746
2025-08-17 15.664991 21.018049 29.687853 47.003042 90.365743 270.527985 NaN
2025-08-24 14.785146 20.037295 28.717794 46.638377 94.561109 335.492578 NaN
2025-08-31 13.977933 19.095459 27.692628 45.931561 97.529025 410.035042 NaN
2025-09-07 13.296603 18.299516 26.832910 45.410971 100.966515 516.350144 NaN
2025-09-14 12.725150 17.638532 26.144061 45.141863 105.290438 685.477956 NaN
2025-09-21 12.092492 16.839036 25.135049 43.980395 106.012540 839.500281 NaN
2025-09-28 11.934216 16.828956 25.613173 46.538835 123.843584 2290.034868 NaN
2025-10-05 11.461848 16.243888 24.917397 45.986749 127.828380 4444.843461 NaN
2025-10-12 11.118391 15.860461 24.582307 46.328987 136.914046 35479.328317 NaN
2025-10-19 10.812610 15.522657 24.304821 46.779160 147.505867 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 10.482102 15.120247 23.858155 46.670647 155.110473 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 10.124073 14.648807 23.230215 45.929034 158.214374 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.861207 14.335477 22.908344 46.048012 168.065362 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.579869 13.973855 22.455751 45.693684 174.375654 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 9.292433 13.587636 21.923352 45.009319 177.616605 NaN NaN
2025-11-30 9.036215 13.247692 21.468314 44.505355 182.360892 NaN NaN